Red Sox Improve With Mike Napoli Addition - Gary Armida's Blog

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Gary Armida's Blog

Red Sox Improve With Mike Napoli Addition

Posted on December 3, 2012 at 12:23 PM.

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(Nashville, Tennessee)--The Red Sox may have suffered through one of their worst seasons in 2012, but the one positive that came out of the disaster was that they were able to free themselves of over $270 million of long term salary commitments. They gutted their roster, but it was a roster that had underachieved in 2011 and sparked far too much negative publicity. And, it was a roster that essentially quit on Bobby Valentine by July. The trade, the subsequent firing of Valentine, and the hiring of John Farrell has allowed the Red Sox to push to proverbial re-set button.

Step one in Ben Cherington�s makeover project was getting John Farrell back in the organization. Farrell is a popular choice in the organization and with the team. After a year of negativity, having a popular figure is wise. The Red Sox then re-signed David Ortiz to a two year deal, inking the popular and still productive designated hitter.

But, all of those were givens. The Red Sox were going to get Farrell; everyone knew that. They were going to re-sign Ortiz. Now, the rest of it was unknown. With money to spend, the Red Sox have several holes to fill, including a first baseman, two outfielders, and possibly a catcher. They signed Jonny Gomes and David Ross, but those deals are more about matchups and depth, despite what the Red Sox say about Gomes� playing time. Ross is one of the better backup catchers in the sport and Gomes is a platoon player as he hits left handed pitching to the tune of .284/.382/.512.

Cherington kicked the remodel job into action on Monday, day one of the Winter Meetings. Cherington signed catcher/first baseman Mike Napoli to a 3 year, $39 million deal. Napoli, one of the best right handed power bats on the market figures to get playing time at first base and catcher in Boston. The Red Sox still need another bat, but their lineup just got deeper by adding Napoli.

During his time in Los Angeles, Napoli hit .251/.346/.485. After falling out of favor with Mike Scioscia, the Angels sent him to Toronto in a deal that brought back Vernon Wells. Toronto immediately dealt Napoli to the Texas Rangers for Frank Francisco. Despite being undervalued in two consecutive trades, Napoli was one of the more productive hitters in the Rangers� lineup.

He was probably their MVP in 2011 as he hit .320/.414/.631 with 25 doubles and 30 home runs. It was a career season and one that he failed to match in 2012 due to injury and some regression. The 30 year old hit .227/.343/.469 with just 9 doubles and 24 home runs in 108 games. His 2011 season was an aberration. It was, the very definition of a career season. But, Napoli was the best offensive catcher on the market and provides good value at an average annual salary of $13 million.

How can a career .259 hitter make $13 million a year? BJ Upton may have some thoughts on that, meaning that the market is there. But, unlike the Braves with Upton, the Red Sox are committed to the relative short term of three years. And, they are paying for some good value.

Only ten teams received an on base percentage higher than .330 from their catchers. Fewer than half of Major League Baseball teams had their catchers slug over .400 or had a wOBA over .310. Only half of the league had catchers hit over 20 home runs. Mike Napoli is one of those few catchers who can provide that offense.

Since 2008, he has hit at least 20 home runs per season, despite playing as few as 78 games in one of those years. He�s never slugged below .468 and has posted an on base percentage of at least .343 in four of those five seasons. There is a dependability and certainty in his production. He can�t be a centerpiece of a lineup, but he is a player who adds depth and above average production. While his defense behind the plate will be criticized, he does have the ability to play first base and the Red Sox do have three other catchers on their roster. Given the dearth of offensive production on the market, especially from a catcher, the Red Sox add a right handed power bat to protect David Ortiz.

Napoli has a career line of .306/.397/.710 in 19 games at Fenway. The park may take a couple of home runs away from him, but it should also add a couple of doubles to his totals. The only real red flag with Napoli is his strikeout rate spiked to 30 percent last season. While his career rate is 25 percent, a 30 percent strikeout rate is alarming. Perhaps it was because of injury, but entering his age 31 season, there is at least a pause when looking at his production.

But, the cost and length more than justify the deal. The Red Sox will pay him until he�s 34, not until he�s 36 or 37. A reasonable projection for 2013 would fall in the line of something like .255/.350/.490, representing a major upgrade for the Red Sox.

Napoli helps the Red Sox in a couple of ways. Last season, they finished 10th in the American League in on base percentage and 9th in home runs. With still some uncertainty with the pitching staff, adding more power and another on base threat, helps the offense.

The Red Sox still need at least one more offensive player. They are linked to Nick Swisher, who could give John Farrell even more flexibility with Swisher�s ability to play first and the outfield. Aside from Josh Hamilton, there wasn�t a power hitter on the market that Mike Napoli couldn�t compare with.

As far as the contract, consider that the Red Sox are paying less per season and for less time than the Braves are paying BJ Upton. The Red Sox will likely be the team that will receive the best value for what they are committing.